December 21-27, 2024 года
Big news. The New Year is coming, there is little economic news. Except maybe the pirate hijacking of a ship carrying Russian oil from Finland. Does anyone seriously think that this strengthens the World Trade Organization system (one of the basic Bretton Woods institutions)? And let’s think about how much it costs to organize a container with drones and how much more expensive marine insurance will be when these drones fly out who knows where and who knows when and sink all sorts of ships?
Note. Given the financial crisis, if I were in the place of the insurance companies, I would think about organizing such a business. Racketeering has not been abolished, and you can blame it on anyone, even the Houthis, even Russia. No one will check anyway.
Theoretically, we can already talk about the results of the year, but, in fact, there are not many of them. More precisely, it can be noted that the structural crisis has never deviated from its basic property, to proceed at approximately the same speed, regardless of the macroeconomic policy of the monetary authorities of different countries. In this sense, it can be noted that the basic economic forecast of the Khazin Foundation, made back in 2019, was fully realized.
Macroeconomics. China’s industrial profits in January-November were -4.7% per year; the year will probably end with the worst dynamics since 2000:
Рис. 1
The PBOC is placing 300 billion yuan through the medium-term lending program, and repaying previous loans of 1.45 trillion. This is a net pumping of money out of the system (-1.15 trillion), the largest in 10 years:
Рис. 2
Apparently, the tools for sterilizing excess money supply are no longer working.
Business confidence in South Korea is at its weakest since the peak of Covid, and before that – since March 2009:
Рис. 3
Chicago Fed’s US National Activity Index has been in the red for 6 months in a row:
Рис. 4
Japan’s housing starts are down 1.8% per year, marking the 7th consecutive monthly decline and the 17th in the last 18 months:
Рис. 5
Number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the US at its highest level in more than 3 years:
Рис. 6
Turkey’s Central Bank has cut its rate by 2.5% to 47.5%. Given the scale of inflation in that country, this is more likely a fundamental policy change than a reaction to its reduction. However, with such a rate, no one might even notice the reduction.
It’s not very clear about South Korea yet, but the won is at a 16-year low after their president was impeached:
Рис. 7
Main conclusions. We suspect that 2025 will be the year when piracy resumes along all trade routes. The Pandora’s box is open and it is not very clear why all potential beneficiaries of this scheme should refuse such a profitable instrument. True, world trade will begin to fold, but what can you do about it…
And one more note. How much would it cost to blow up a gas tanker filled with liquefied gas? We are not trying to scare you, this is a completely rational move for those who can ensure the safety of their supplies, but are interested in raising prices.
And raising prices is an extremely attractive method for earning money. For example, look at cocoa. It has grown higher than Bitcoin:
Here, however, it is not a matter of piracy, but of a decrease in supply, but who said that piracy will lead to its growth?
For those who believe in preserving the old economic model, we note the price chart for diamonds:
Let’s face it, this commodity is highly manipulated in terms of prices, but only within the framework of the old financial system. If it collapses, then the prices for diamonds should fall several times over… And, accordingly, the interest in them will change.
In general, the main conclusion from this Review is that an increasing number of market participants are beginning to doubt that the old (dollar, Bretton Woods) system can be preserved. And we remind our readers that the full theory of the corresponding process can be read in the book by Mikhail Khazin “Memories of the Future. Ideas of the Modern Economy” (Moscow, 2019). In English translation, it is available on the Amazon website in paper form: https://www.amazon.com/Recollections-Future-Modern-Economic-Ideas/dp/B0DM6JYFWF/ref=sr_1_3?crid=2928XVUZ5KZCB&d ib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.H3y948Fvvjcn2ws6Bhv2Za6ZR5fOsLULOlcyI92pTVycObfRQxty3XfxFw5x_jn6YOKJ6Glu4Cqm-jjMKcgVQW639LAidTe jyIt3mUw7ohxpzvPmUf__AZKfeMjPWL9Ge875au7YDHkYyhEmqaqsAjkNMqx4U9_wPEu2UiwdWgXfb4OeU4WGiVkYSDJhaxfM.PSE5NT_Ax6rXljEYeyP2lqVPq0Kd8we8B9IWFsivUz0&dib_tag=se&keywords=khazin+mikhail&qid=1735308230&sprefix=%2Caps%2C276&sr=8-3 .
Well, we congratulate our readers on the upcoming New Year and the holidays that have already arrived and are yet to come! And we wish you good luck and prosperity in the new year!