June 29 – July 5, 2024
Big news. A significant deterioration in many macro indicators of the American economy at once.
The length of the working week in the United States did not increase in May:
Рис. 1
The average home price fell in May:
The ISM index (an expert index of the state of the industry; its value below 50 means stagnation and decline) of business activity in the manufacturing sector in June was 48.5, with a consensus forecast of 50 and the previous value (May) of 48.7. The same index of employment in the industrial sector was 49.3, with a consensus of 51 and the previous value of 51.5.
In conclusion, we can mention the speech of Fed Chairman Powell speaking at a forum at the European Central Bank (ECB) on July 2. Answering a question about the level of US national debt, he literally said the following: “The path we are taking is unacceptable, there is no doubt about it. That should be the focus, how do we get back on track that we can sustain. In the long term, we need to do something. It’s better to do it sooner rather than later.”
In addition, he hinted that the inflation situation is improving. However, with such data on the state of affairs in the real sector as for May-June, it is necessary to urgently reduce the rate. So there was nothing unexpected in this place.
Macroeconomics. Japan’s GDP over the last 3 quarters has been revised down significantly (instead of -0.9%, 0.0% and -0.4% in
quarter is now -1.0%, -0.1% and -0.7% respectively):
Рис. 3
Household spending in Japan -1.8% per year – 14th minus in the last 15 months:
Рис. 4
Factory orders in Germany have been declining month-on-month for 5 months in a row:
Рис. 5
Industrial production in Germany -2.5% per month, the worst dynamics in 1.5 years:
Рис. 6
And -6.7% per year, minus the Covid failure, this is the weakest indicator since 2009:
Рис. 7
Industrial output in France is -2.5% per month, as in Germany, this is at least 1.5 years:
Рис. 8
Australia Manufacturing PMI 47.2, 4-year low:
Рис. 9
A similar picture in Norway –
Рис. 10
Japan’s services sector PMI is 49.4, excluding Covid, this is the bottom since 2016:
Рис. 11
In the US, 48.8 – minus covid, this is a 15-year minimum:
Рис. 12
Output in the Swedish construction sector -7.5% per year, 16th minus in a row:
Рис. 13
UK mortgage rates rose to 7.98%, just 0.04% from last fall’s 26-year peak:
Рис. 14
US trade deficit is highest in 19 months:
Рис. 15
Nigeria CPI (Consumer Inflation Index) +33.96% per annum, 28-year high:
Рис. 16
At the same time, food inflation is generally a record in history (+40.7% per year) –
Рис. 17
Job postings in Australia have fallen month-on-month for 5 months in a row –
Рис. 18
Announcements of layoffs in the US in June are the highest for this month since 2009 (not counting Covid 2020):
Рис. 19
The number of unemployment benefit recipients in the US continues to update its peaks since the fall of 2021:
Рис. 20
And the unemployment rate is the highest since the fall of 2017 (excluding the Covid surge):
Рис. 21
We remind you that labor statistics in the United States are one of the most falsified sectors, so you can only trust relative indicators. That is, the situation there is getting worse, but it’s difficult to figure out how much.
Main conclusions. The main political event of the week was discussions about US President Biden’s resignation as at least a presidential candidate. And at most – from his post. But weekly data shows that there has been a significant deterioration in industrial production around the world for at least two months. Especially in the USA.
So it is possible that various political events, including the visit of the Hungarian leader Orban to Moscow and the implicit conflict between the foreign policy leader of the European Union Barrel and the (outgoing) NATO Secretary General on this issue are in fact not political events, but economic ones. Because this is the underlying problem.
The situation is similar with the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve System, who began to talk actively about the unacceptability of the accumulated debt. Which cannot be reduced (since it stimulates domestic demand in the United States), but the dangerous influence of which, on the other hand, can be reduced by reducing the cost of its maintenance. By lowering the rate, of course. Especially considering that a rate cut could stimulate the industrial sector.
In general, the main conclusion from the current situation is that it seems that problems in the economy in general and industry in particular have begun to have a direct impact on politics. Which, in fact, we have warned our readers about more than once.
Ну и в заключение мы желаем нашим читателям без проблем пережить время, оставшееся до отпуска и хорошо подготовиться к разным пертурбациям в течение рабочей недели!