Things are a little harder with the house…

November 23-29, 2024

Big news. New home sales in the US fell by 17.3% in a month. This is the weakest dynamics since the summer of 2013:

The value of this indicator has returned to 2016/18 levels (more than 40% below the Covid peaks):

At the same time, the average price of homes sold has risen sharply:

It is quite possible that the second is a consequence of the first, but then the growth of the average price means hidden (from the monetary authorities, but not from our readers) inflation. In any case, such a sharp fall in the pre-election month could not go unnoticed and not beaten up, played its role in the development of political events.

Macroeconomics. Turkey’s GDP has been falling for 2 quarters in a row (both times by -0.2% per quarter):

Italian industrial sales -0.3% m/m, 5th consecutive monthly decline:

And -5.7% per year, the worst dynamics since the peaks of Covid and the 18th minus in a row:

The current situation in the German business climate survey (from IFO) is at a 15-year low (not counting Covid):

The number of unemployed in Germany has been rising monthly for 23 months in a row and 30 months out of the last 31:

Setting a fresh 10-year peak (excluding the Covid surge):

French unemployment claims +53.6k per month; not counting the surge in March-April 2020, this is a 10-year high:

Chicago Fed’s US National Activity Index Worst in 9 Months:

The Texas Fed’s regional indicator has been in the red for a record 31 straight months:

The Chicago PMI (an expert index of the state of the industry; its value below 50 means stagnation and decline) is also sad, a half-year low (40.2) and 12 months in a row in the recession zone:

US jobless claims continue to hit 3-year highs –

Japan’s housing starts are down -2.9% per year, the 6th in a row and the 16th in the last 17 months:

PPI (industrial inflation index) South Africa -0.7% per year, the first minus in all 12 years of statistics:

New Zealand retail sales down 2.5% y/y, 8th straight quarter of decline:

China’s industrial profits in Jan-Oct -4.3% y/y; decline accelerated sharply in autumn (September -27.1% y/y, October -10.0%) –

Nigeria’s central bank raised its rate for the sixth time this year to a record high of 27.5% as inflation resumed to rise. New Zealand’s central bank cut its rate by 0.50% to 4.25%, promising to continue doing so. South Korea’s central bank also cut its rate by 0.25% to 3.00%.

Main conclusions. The structural crisis of the global economy continues, the economy reacts weakly to macroeconomic signals. Actually, as it should be according to theory (see M. Khazin, Mikhail Khazin, “Recollections of the Future: Modern Economic Ideas” https://www.amazon.com/Recollections-Future-Modern-Economic-Ideas/dp/B0DM6JYFWF/ref=sr_1_1?crid=28QOW9BH914D7&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.4wPwfqm5mZ7zsro6AEYpoEEqTs6fBeoz8A1ItmTKsfUoWSMg3kepJpUb1Dc TU-pFMnMtEOis0VZMwlIVU_pyAHfklHJlEQImpjh_9Nn_Kc4.LggSJIZmY7xZAuFO0dUnug1-iGXSI6VW21G1Ai0FH4U& dib_tag=se&keywords=mikhail+khazin&qid=1732905596&sprefix=%2Caps%2C182&sr=8-1#customerReviews )
 
But the reaction from the US monetary authorities has been noted. The minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve showed a growing divergence in assessments of the prospects for further policy easing between different members of the board. It makes sense: if there is no reaction to easing monetary policy, why lower the rate? Industrial decline? But, apparently, its cause is not eliminated by lowering the rate.

Regularly, one or another product suddenly “shoots up” in price. This time it was coffee’s turn, prices broke the peaks of 2011 and 1997 and are storming the record high of 1977:

Well, in conclusion, it can be noted that there are indirect signs that the US is going to cut off part of the money supply accumulated abroad. First of all, cash. Of course, this may be a false alarm, but we are obliged to warn our readers. So that they can happily relax on the weekend, and then move on to workdays with an already prepared action plan.