New Trigger


Period: 20 – 26 March 2021

Top news story: There have been many events this week, each of which could claim the headline news. For example, the correlation ratio between the three major indices in the US dropped sharply (S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial и Nasdaq Composite):

This is a consequence of the rapid outflow of capital from technology stocks to traditional ones.

The volume of stock options fell sharply:

This means that households are not willing to invest in the stock market funds received from the State. The likelihood of significant adjustments has thus increased significantly. Serious problems in Turkey’s Financial Markets. The 10-year bonds of this country surged harshly in price:

In fact, they’re being sold out. Turkey’s economy is serious enough, even if it is regional in scope, and its decline does not bode well.

But the big news, of course, was the blocking of the Suez Canal, through which 10% of world trade goes:

A huge number of ships waiting for passage can be viewed in the lower right-hand corner of the photo, and in the upper-left-hand corner – a stuck container ship (source – Bloomberg). The problem is not really the stalled vessel, but how much without any effort it has been possible to have a very serious impact on world trade. In today’s world, this alone may be the trigger that will push the collapse of financial markets.


The index of national activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in February fell to its lowest since April:

The US deficit in the balance of trade in goods in February was the highest in 66 years of observation:

In UK, jobless claims rose at the worst rate since May 2020 in February:

United Kingdom Claimant Count Change

And employment declined for the 10th month in a row:

United Kingdom Employment Change

New home sales in the United States fell to a 9-month low in February:

The annual growth of South Korea’s PPI (Producer Price Index) in February peaked in October 2018:

And Britain is at its highest since January 2020. Not surprisingly, Britain’s retail balance remains at extremely low levels (-45%):

Mexico’s annual decline in retail sales is the worst in five months (-7,6%), as is its monthly GDP:

Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity

Personal income in the United States in February was -7,1% per month (December incentives were down) – a record low in 62 years:

Consequently, personal spending also slumped by 1%:

United States Personal Spending

The Central Bank of China did not change monetary policy, nor did the Central Bank of South Africa.

Summary: On the whole, it is easy to see that the world economy is deteriorating rapidly. By the way, the statistics on US household income quoted in the previous section make it immediately clear why the US is talking about new incentives. The problem lies solely in the impotence of these incentives.
It is for this reason that the main news becomes those that advance the moment of potential collapse. Of course, one can be optimistic and say that the situation will begin to improve with the start of the new quarter, but the logical question is, why? So far, no objective indicators of improvement have been seen, and there is no basis for economic growth.
We wish all readers of our review a happy weekend and a fruitful work week!


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