April 19-25, 2025
Big news. As we are used to after Donald Trump came to power in Washington, the main events are political. We will not repeat them, but we will note that there was a reaction. The dollar index is at a 3-year low and seems ready to fall by at least another 5-10%:
Pic. 1
Gold, in turn, reached the psychologically significant level of $3,500 per ounce. True, it then went down, but it is not at all a fact (or rather, almost certainly not) that it will last long:
Pic. 2
Macroeconomics. South Korea’s GDP is -0.1% per year, not counting Covid, this is the first decline since 2009:
Pic. 3
UK industrial orders balance in negative territory for 33 months in a row:
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The PMI (an expert index of the state of the industry; its value below 50 means stagnation and decline) of the UK industry is 44.0. It was worse only in August 2023 and during Covid (April-May 2020); and before that, similar numbers appeared only in 2009:
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US leading indicators -0.7% m/m, worst decline in 1.5 years:
Pic. 8
US Mortgage Applications -12.7% week after -8.5% the week before, worst performance in six months:
Pic. 9
What are rising interest rates on loans due to?
Pic. 10
Powell can certainly be criticized, but he knows his business. Therefore, his hints that the rate cannot be lowered are justified. Another thing is that Trump considers his activity not as professional, but as political. However, Powell himself is to blame, he provoked it.
Consumer sentiment in the eurozone is at a minimum in 1.5 years:
Pic. 11
The same is true in Britain, and the expectations component there is at its lowest in 2 years:
Pic. 12
US consumers are at their most pessimistic since July 2022, the only time they’ve been this gloomy is in 1980:
Pic. 13
The expectations component returned to the bottom of 2022, thus repeating the 45-year low:
Pic. 14
Annual inflation expectations (+6.5%) are the highest since late 1981:
Pic. 15
And 5-year-olds (+4.4%) – since 1991:
Pic. 16
Powell again.
The Chinese Central Bank has not changed anything in its monetary policy yet. The Indonesian Central Bank has done the same.
Main conclusions. There is no doubt that the political events of the last week will affect macroeconomic parameters. But a little later. For now, it can be noted that the structural crisis continues at the same pace, as it should. Two interesting points can be noted. First, the increase in the use of antidepressants:
Moreover, this primarily concerns white men and, especially, women. However, it is possible that this is the effect of the liberal policy of fighting the white population and now the situation will begin to improve.
The second point is the record figures for people who work two jobs:
This graph confirms the general decline in the standard of living in
Well, we wish our readers a good weekend (especially Russian readers, on the eve of the May holidays) and a not too burdensome work week (for many, a shortened one!)