February 15-21, 2025
Big news. No macroeconomy can compare to Donald Trump in terms of creating newsworthy events. We won’t even try, there was nothing “like that” last week, not even close.
US home starts plummet in January:
Рис. 1
But this happened against the backdrop of significant growth in the previous month, and now we can say with confidence that either this growth did not exist at all, but rather there was an incorrect seasonal cleanup, or it had some unique reasons (elections? natural disasters?).
Now the situation has become somewhat clearer and it has become clear that the gradual downward trend continues. The overall picture that we have been showing for several years, since autumn 2021, has not changed.
Macroeconomics: UK industrial orders balance in negative territory for 31 consecutive months:
Рис. 2
The PMI (an expert index of the state of the industry; its value below 50 means stagnation and decline) of the French services sector (44.5) fell to its 12-year low (excluding Covid):
Рис. 3
In the US, the similar index has a 2-year bottom (49.7):
Рис. 4
Japan’s CPI (consumer inflation index) (+4.0% y/y) is almost back to its 44-year peak of January 2023 (+4.3%):
Рис. 5
Canada’s PPI (Industrial Inflation Index) (+5.8% per year) is at a 2-year maximum:
Рис. 6
5-year inflation expectations in the US (from the University of Michigan) are the highest since late 1993 (+3.5%):
Рис. 7
China’s loan volume is up 7.5% per year, a record low in the 27 years of statistics:
Рис. 8
Sweden’s unemployment rate jumped to 10.4%, just 0.1% below its Covid peak and below its 1997 record high:
Рис. 9
The RBA finally (the last of the leading ones) started to soften policy and cut the rate by -0.25% to 4.10%. The RBA of New Zealand was more prompt, they already have the 4th reduction of the interest rate (by 0.50% to 3.75%).
Indonesia’s central bank policy remained unchanged, as did China’s. Nigeria’s central bank also left the rate unchanged, but at a record high of 27.5%.
Main conclusions. In fact, nothing has changed. Prices continue to rise, indicators of the real sector of the economy are falling. The graph of natural gas prices in the US showed a 26-month peak:
Рис. 10
Gold, the most important defensive asset, continues to grow:
Рис. 11
In Russia, it’s a holiday, February 23, so we wish our readers a good rest on the weekend and a decent result during the work week!