You are fired!

The main news. Gold prices have set a new historical record. Quotations of December gold futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) rose by 2.32% and peaked at $3,534.1 per ounce. The previous high was recorded at auction on April 22 at $3509,9 за унцию.

After such a result, it is naive enough to say that there is no recession in the world: gold is the main asset of protection. Protection from what? Yes, from this very recession!

However, it should be noted that the length of the working week in the United States increased in July.:

This, of course, could be considered as an optimistic phenomenon, if not for one funny circumstance. In the previous review ( https://fondmx.pro/itogi-nedeli/spory-o-stavke / ) extremely gloomy data on the US labor market has been published. As a result, at the very end of last week, Donald Trump fired the leadership of the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Ministry of Labor.…

Naturally, a rhetorical question immediately arises: how will the heads of relevant structures behave in all countries and on all continents? As it is clear, we will not give an answer.

Macroeconomics. Industrial production in Germany -3.6% per year, the 25th negative in a row:

Restoration of production, you say… well, well.

The PMI (expert index of the state of the industry; its value below 50 means stagnation and recession) of the Brazilian service sector fell into the depression (46.3); the output component is the weakest since the beginning of 2017 (excluding the covid failure):

The US non-manufacturing PMI (ISM survey) remains near the worst levels since 2009 (except for a brief collapse in 2020):

Britain’s construction PMI (44.3) was weaker for only a short time in 2019/20 throughout the history of the survey.:

Employment in Canada is 40.8 thousand per month, excluding covid, this is the weakest indicator in 7 years:

The unemployment rate in New Zealand returned to its covid peak, which, in turn, was the highest since 2016 –

The number of recipients of unemployment benefits in the United States has again reached its peak in almost 4 years; if we exclude covid leaps, the figure is the highest since February 2018:

I wonder if this is the last “sorry” of the old leadership, or is it already the front of the new one?

Household spending in Japan is -5.2% per month, excluding covid, is the worst trend in 10 years; of course, this is mainly a rebound from last month’s rise (+4.6%). But still, in total, for 2 months it turned out to be a definite minus:

The FAO World Food Price Index is at its peak in 2.5 years:

At the same time, dairy product’s prices have already returned to a record high in 2022: 

And meat prices have even surpassed it:

The Bank of England cut the rate by 0.25% to 4.00%, the board split almost in half (5 members in favor, 4 against), so even 2 rounds of voting were needed. Next month, there may be changes in the program of sales of government bonds held on the Central Bank’s balance sheet; due to “stress in the long bond market,” it is possible to suspend this process:

The Central Bank of Mexico also reduced the base rate by 0.25%, to 7.75%; promises to continue easing:

The main conclusions. Let’s add some information on the Bureau of Labor Statistics from Pavel Ryabov. “Trump staged a pogrom at the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) …

Trump was very angry that his image of a winner began to crumble, who “organized trillions of dollars of foreign investment pouring into the hottest country in human history, whereas a year ago the country was dead amid extraordinary, unimaginable and fantastic economic successes that had never been in history.”

Trump immediately fired Erica mcentarfer (BLS Commissioner), who is responsible for releasing statistics on inflation, the labor market and other important areas.

Trump accused mcentarfer of falsifying labor market data for political purposes, although he did not provide any evidence of this.

“We need reliable employment data. I have ordered my team to immediately fire this Biden political litter. She will be replaced by someone more competent and qualified.

The economy is PUMPING under TRUMP, despite the fact that the Fed is also playing games with interest rates — they lowered them significantly twice right before the presidential election, I believe, in the hope of helping Kamala? And how do you think it worked?

It’s time to send Jerome “Mr. Nerdy” Powell to pasture, too.”

In an interview with the press near the White House, Trump promised to “stick a soldering iron in the ass” to anyone who would release bad economic data (below 3% of GDP, above 0% of inflation and below 250,000 jobs per month), the main message was precisely this.

In fact, the data is reviewed regularly, last year it was retroactively revised by more than 800 thousand for the worse.This time, the June base was worsened by 258 thousand, having revised the increase in May down by 125 thousand (19 thousand instead of 147 thousand) and in June down by 133 thousand (14 thousand instead of 147 thousand), and that’s how we got 258 thousand.”

Let’s add two more interesting graphs. The first is the number of 30—year-olds in the United States who have their own family and housing:

The second one is the difference in inflation between different EU countries:

This is a manifestation of a structural crisis. Most likely, the same pattern applies to different states in the United States, but I have not found the relevant data.

Note that in addition to optimistic data on financial markets, pessimistic ones also appeared, for example, the share price of UnitedHealth Group (a component of the Dow Jones index) has fallen 2.5 times over the past 4 months and returned to the lows of the covid era.:

In such a situation, we strongly recommend that our readers not only enjoy their summer holidays, but also closely monitor their assets, especially financial ones!