War begins?

June 10-15, 2025

The big news. An Israeli strike on Iran and a retaliatory strike on Israel. The results are not yet known, but the reaction of the markets is taking place.

Oil prices have increased significantly. So are gold prices:

There are other consequences, but let’s look at them early next week. Most likely, serious changes have begun in the Middle East, which will have to be closely monitored.

Macroeconomics.  Industrial production in Mexico -4.0% per year, 7-year low (excluding covid):

The deficit in the balance of foreign trade in goods in Britain almost repeated the historical record of January 2022: 

Loans in China +7.1% per year, an anti-record for all 27 years of statistics:

PPI (Industrial Inflation Index) China -3.3% per year, the 32nd negative in a row and the worst decline in 2 years:

Why did the cumulative price index drop to an 8-year low (not counting the brief dip in covid):

Inflation expectations in Australia (+5.0%) highest in 2 years:

 

Consumer sentiment in Indonesia worst in 3 years; excluding covid and military failures – in 8 years:

Initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States have been at their peak for 8 months: 

And the repeated ones have updated the top in 3.5 years: 

The number of employees on salary in Britain is 109 thousand per month, the 7th negative in a row and the worst dynamics in the entire history of observations (except for the 2 months of spring 2020):

Why is the unemployment rate at its peak in more than 8 years (again, excluding covid):

The main conclusions. Against the background of the war between Iran and Israel, all the economic news looks rather inappropriate. But let’s face it: the underlying cause of the war is precisely economic problems. And, of course, they cannot be eliminated by war, rather, they will increase. War can only help some characters escape responsibility for the disastrous results of their activities. From the point of view of macroeconomics, we can only note that the structural crisis in the global economy continues. But whether it accelerates or not, we will see in the next review, which will describe the events of next week. In conclusion, we wish our readers to be careful not to get caught up in the events that have begun in the Middle East.