July 4-10, 2025
Big news. Summer is here, news is scarce. The strongest post on social media was from William J. Palta (chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), who wrote: “I am encouraged by reports that Jerome Powell is considering resigning. I think this would be the right direction for America, and the country would benefit from it.”
It should be noted that Plath is a vocal supporter of US President Trump, who is, after all, actively campaigning against Powell. So the veracity of this report remains an open question, although the S&P500 index fell 0.3% on Friday following the report:
Рис. 1
Macroeconomics. Industrial production in the UK -0.9% m/m, the 3rd negative in a row and the 7th in the last 9 months. The worst indicator in 16 months:
Рис. 2
In the extractive industries -7.2% per year, the 34th minus in a row:
Рис. 3
Germany’s current account surplus is at its lowest in 12 years, excluding the Covid-war slumps of 2020/23:
China’s PPI (industrial inflation index) -3.6% per year, the worst dynamics in 2 years and a return to the Covid bottom of 2020:
Рис. 5
This deflationary dynamic, which is a sign of industrial depression, suggests that, as we warned, the improvement in late spring and early summer was quite possibly the result of purely statistical tricks.
The number of recipients of unemployment benefits in the US continues to update the maximums in almost 4 years:
Рис. 6
Household spending in Sweden -1.2% per month, excluding Covid spikes in 2020/22, is the worst in 7 years:
Рис. 7
Australia’s central bank kept rates unchanged by a 6-3 vote, defying expectations for a rate cut:
Рис. 8
The Central Bank of New Zealand and the Central Bank of South Korea did not change anything
Рис. 9
Main conclusions. Apart from the natural slowdown of summer processes, the crisis phenomena continue in the same format. At the same time, the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve showed that only a few members of the board are ready to cut rates already in July; most prefer caution. And there are even those who do not intend to soften policy by the end of this year.
This is natural, since there are many signs of high inflation, in particular, copper prices have risen (true, after Trump introduced a 50% import duty on it), thus reaching a new historical maximum:
Рис. 10
Cattle prices are also at a record high:
Рис. 11
Well, Bitcoin is also worth mentioning, as it has updated its historical maximum and almost reached $120 thousand:
Рис. 12
Trump’s activity is understandable, he wants to start growth in the real sector of the American economy, but one can also understand the Fed leaders, who are most afraid of inflation. And there is no good way out of the situation, since without eliminating structural imbalances in the economy, there will definitely be no growth. Who else would formulate this in the USA?
In general, we can say with almost certainty that regardless of whether Powell resigns or not, Trump introduces more tariffs or not, the overall picture of the world will not change, the crisis will continue. Therefore, we wish our readers not to wait for an improvement that will not happen, but to prepare to use the crisis in their business!