Once again in the same place…

The main news. The annual audit of the reports of the US Department of Labor showed that preliminary estimates overestimated the number of jobs in the 12 months (through March 2025 inclusive) by almost a million (more than twice) – the worst correction in 26 years, covering last year’s huge one by almost 100 thousand:

Last year, by the way, they also reduced, not increased… the scale of the deterioration in statistics is enormous and there are serious reasons to think that this is the case everywhere. Another thing is that the labor statistics came out first. See also the data on initial applications from the unemployed in the next section.

Perhaps the trick here is the battle between Trump and Powell on the issue of bank rate. If there is trouble on the labor front (and this is the second “mandate” of the FRS), then there is every reason to continue to put pressure on Powell and accuse him of neglecting problems in the labor market. Let’s see how the situation will develop further, we are pleased that as a result of political differences, naked reality is coming to the surface.

True, we have repeatedly written in our reviews about the distortion of statistics, but assessment is one thing, and outright falsification is another. In any case, we strongly recommend that our subscribers think about what inflation really is in the United States and, accordingly, what kind of GDP.

Macroeconomics. Production in Mexico is -2.7% per year, the 11th negative in the last 12 months:

We remind you that this is Mexico, with cheap labor and the proximity of the colossal American market, to which everyone loves to transfer production.

The deficit in the balance of foreign trade in goods in Britain has increased due to the expansion of imports:

And it turned out to be the second worst in history. The deficit was slightly higher only in January 2022:

China’s PPI (Business Activity Index) -2.9% last year, the 35th consecutive month:

The very level of these prices returned to the figures of 8 years ago:

The growth of loans in China (+6.8% per year) has updated the historical anti-record:

There is a serious industrial stagnation. And manufacturers are trying to compensate for the drop in demand by increasing debt, hoping that the bad times will pass. Well, optimism is a good thing.

Bank lending in Japan +3.6% per year. Apart from covid, it was higher (+3.7%) only once, at the end of 2008:

And the picture here is the same as in China.

Indonesian consumers have been as pessimistic as possible since the beginning of 2017 (excluding covid):

Brazilian retail -0.3% monthly, 4th negative in a row:

Initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States are at their peak in almost 4 years:

The ECB has kept its monetary policy unchanged; improved its GDP forecast. I wonder where they got such optimism from?

The Central Bank of Turkey has cut the rate by 2.5% to 40.5%, complaining about low domestic demand.

The main conclusions. Stagflation is rampant around the world. It is a classic sign of a structural crisis, which, however, liberal economic theory does not recognize. At the same time, everyone assesses the risks almost equally, and therefore the price of gold is already above $ 3,700 per ounce:

Moreover, the price of gold in euros is growing no weaker than in dollars, and even stronger on average over 10-15 years:

The difference in silver is even more obvious. In dollars, the price is only approaching the peak of 2011:

And in euros, it has already surpassed it and is updating historical highs. –

But the incomes of citizens are falling, which is clearly visible on the growth graph of overdue loans for non-first-class car purchases.

If we add to all this the growth of political instability, the picture becomes quite sad. Okay, Nepal … But the bombing of Qatar’s capital puts the entire oil logistics at risk. And, in general, there is no doubt that the escalation will continue. Therefore, we certainly wish our readers a pleasant weekend, but we advise you to keep the powder dry!