What everyone is silent about…

June 21-26, 2025

Big news. Formally, the main economic news of the week has nothing to do with macroeconomics. It is that at the NATO summit no one said a word about the state of the world economy.

Since, as is obvious from our reviews, the state of the global economy cannot be called normal in any way and there is no reason to believe that the recession that has been going on for quite a long time will end soon, such behavior looks somewhat strange. Indeed, how can one make strategic plans for many years to come if the resources needed to implement them are reduced every year? And significantly so.

At the beginning of the year, all Western experts hoped that economic growth would begin by summer. As we can see, it has not begun; on the contrary, the crisis continues. Moreover, in full accordance with the theory developed with the participation of our Foundation, the rate of decline is neither decreasing nor increasing. This is a structural crisis. But the political elites of the West, as is evident from the NATO summit, continue to completely ignore this crisis. Which, of course, looks wild today …

Macroeconomics. US GDP in Q1 was revised from -0.2% to -0.5% per quarter “on an annualized basis”. Formally, due to worsening estimates of consumer spending and exports:

Let’s see what they say at the end of Q2.

Leading indicators in the US are -0.1% per month, the 5th minus in a row; the previous month’s figure after the revision became -1.4%. This is the worst dynamics in the history of the review, not counting the 2 months at the height of covid:

The US balance of payments deficit in Q1 was by far the worst in history:

US New Home Sales -13.7% Monthly, Weakest Performance in 3 Years:

US home prices -0.4% month-over-month, 3-year low, one of the worst in history:

And +3.0% per year, very close to the anti-record for 13 years:

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the US continues to hit more than 3.5-year highs; excluding Covid fluctuations, this is the worst figure since February 2017:

US private income is -0.4% per month, excluding Covid, this is the worst dynamics since January 2013:

The reason is mainly transfers (-2.2%) and ascribed rent (-2.3%):

In any case, private spending also fell slightly (-0.1% per month):

Well, we talked about sales in the previous review.

The balance of orders in the UK industry is -33%, the 35th minus in a row:

The last time such a long negative streak happened was more than 30 years ago:

UK retail balance -46%, 9th consecutive negative, 1.5 year low and one of the worst values ​​in history:

Dutch business confidence close to 12-year low at end-2023 (excluding Covid):

Japan’s leading indicators weakest in 5 years:

Norway’s unemployment rate at its highest in more than 8 years (excluding Covid surge):

Mexico’s central bank cut rates by 0.5% to 8.0%.

Main conclusions: A combination of recession and high inflation. In the 70s, this was called stagflation and is one of the typical signs of a PEC crisis in the context of permitted emission. And here is platinum growing, having updated its 11-year peak:

Let us note, by the way, that in China, unlike NATO countries, they understand everything, which is clearly visible from the dynamics of gold purchases and sales of American treasuries:

Let’s note one more circumstance. Liberal economic theorists ignore not only the scale of the decline, but also the duration of the negative dynamics. And this suggests that, most likely, this topic is closed at the management level. That is, it is quite possible that the picture is even worse than it follows from the official figures.

But, summer is still coming and for this reason there is no reason not to enjoy the weekend and prepare for vacations! Which is what we wish for all our readers!