Gold! Gold!

4-10 october 2025

The main news. Gold continues to grow rapidly and has already surpassed the $4,000 per troy ounce mark:

Moreover, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that gold prices will rise to $5,000 per ounce if the US Federal Reserve loses its independence.

We remind you that in the early reviews of the Khazin Fund, which appeared before the covid epidemic, we said that gold would be attractive for investment up to the price of 5,000 dollars per ounce. Further (up to $ 20,000), it can still be used as a “protection asset”, for saving money. But up to 5,000 $ is an excellent investment asset. And without any reference to the fate of the FRS.

However, most likely, such a link was needed to protect against rabid criticism. But why? Back then, 6 years ago, our outlook was something unique, but today it is already becoming obvious.

Macroeconomics. There is a shutdown in the USA, so there is relatively little data. However, this did not affect their content.

Orders from German industrial enterprises are -0.8% per month, the 4th month negative in a row:

Industrial production in Germany is -4.3% per month, including capital goods -18.5%:

If we exclude the covid fall of 2020/22, then it was worse only once in all 35 years of data collection, at the end of 2008 (-7.5% per month):

The annual dynamics (-3.9%) has been negative for 26 month of the last 27 one:

The industrial output level has been at the bottom since the end of 2009. These and other details are in the Financial Times article:

See also the last section of the Review.

The Italian industry is also sad, with output of -2.7% per year: the 29th month negative for the last 31 months:

The index of matching indicators in Japan is the lowest in 1.5 years amid inflation and the war of duties:

And Japan’s bankruptcy rate has jumped to a 12-year high.:

Consumer sentiment in Indonesia is the worst in 9 years (excluding covid); incomes have dropped especially sharply:

The number of job ads in Australia is -3.3% per month, the worst trend in 1.5 years and the 3rd negative month in a row; -4.3% per year:

The Central Bank of New Zealand cut the rate by 0.5% (expected -0.25%) to 2.5%; complains about the weakness of the economy.

The main conclusions. First, about Germany. Industrial production schedule:

It is somewhat more detailed than in the second section and shows the trends very clearly. But I recommend looking at the recession of 2008-2009. It clearly shows that at the peak of the crisis, the decline will be significantly below the trend line. There is a structural crisis going on now, it is more or less constant in terms of speed. But when it overlaps with a financial collapse and, in addition, a wave of degradation begins, then the recession will be much more serious.

We don’t want to scare anyone, but look at other security assets besides the dollar.

Bitcoin has Updated its All-time High (above $126,000):

And silver finally overcame the peak of 2011 and immediately flew above $51 per ounce:

So the market generally agrees with us. But we talked about this a lot earlier, and we congratulate our readers on this, first of all, we wish them all a happy and kind weekend before the working week!