Everything is disturbing!

11-18 Ocrober 2025

The main news. Politics has returned to the economy: sharp jumps in the stock market and individual assets (bitcoin), depending on news from the Middle East or Russia.

Someone will say, what does this have to do with the case? But the fact is that at the ascending stage of the bubble, the market is growing no matter what. The renewed reaction to the political news suggests that it is very likely that we are gradually approaching the end of the crazy rally. And various hints (see the last section of the Review) indicate that the situation is escalating.

Let’s note one event that occurred between the reviews: Trump’s announcement of the introduction of 100% duties on Chinese goods from November 1. The financial markets collapsed, but there was no new news and they began to improve. But, as we noted above, there is a sensitivity to political news.

As it is, since the shutdown in the United States continues, there is not much news.

Macroeconomics. Industrial production in Britain is -0.7% per year – the 4th negative month in a row and the 48th in the last 50 months:

Capacity utilization in Japan is approaching post-covid lows; excluding the effects of Covid 2020 and the earthquake of 2011, these are the worst values since the historical anti-records of 2009.:

The assessment of the current situation in the German economy (a component of the ZEW Economic Sentiment survey) is holding near record lows, having been in the red for almost 4 years. The negative series lasted a little longer only once in the history of observations (in 2001-06):

The deficit of foreign trade in goods in Britain is 21.2 billion pounds. In the entire history of data collection, it was worse only once, in January 2022:

CPI (Consumer inflation index) India +1.5% per year, repeating the record low of 2017:

The picture is about the same for the food inflation:

And it’s the same in wholesale prices:

Conclusion: depressive phenomena have affected even this country!

PPI (Industrial Inflation Index) China -2.3% per year, 36th negative month in a row:

China’s CPI is also negative (-0.3% per year):

And the dynamics of food prices (-4.4% per year) is the weakest in almost 2 years and generally at record lows:

Loans in China +6.6% per year, the worst dynamics in the history of statistics:

There is something to discuss at the plenum of the CPC Central Committee next week.

The unemployment rate in Britain is the highest in 9 years (excluding covid):

In Australia, unemployment is at its peak in 4 years, but the indicator is still below the expected values:

The latest turmoil in the stock markets has caused new problems for regional banks in the United States – losses, fraud and credit shortages; against this background, the FRS is preparing to continue monetary easing and curtail the quantitative tightening program (by selling off assets from its balance sheet). Powell spoke during the week and promised all this.

The markets got excited after that, but not for long. However, those who wish can read about it in an article from Bloomberg.

The main conclusions. The structural crisis began to expand into new areas, for example, as described above, regional banks. But in reality, the largest banks also have problems, as Dimon, the head of J.P.Morgan, warned in a peculiar way (“a cockroach rarely comes alone”):

As political events accelerate more and more, people are buying up precious metals faster and faster. Which continue to grow. Gold, having barely broken through the $4,000 per ounce mark, is already approaching $4,500:

Silver, having just updated its record peak below $50, has almost reached $55:

Please note, this is all without correction. It, of course, will appear later… The only question is when. True, Trump’s conversation with Putin seemed to inspire optimism, but who said that something would not be arranged over the weekend or by the beginning of next week? … In general, we can only wish our readers that such unpleasant surprises would pass them both on weekends and during the working week!