Are we really on the verge of collapse?

November 1-7, 2025

The main news. Significant decrease in the value of Nvidia shares:

Nvidia’s $NVDA shares have fallen by almost 5% in a day and are already down 16% from Monday’s high, bringing down the company’s capitalization by $800 billion.

By itself, this story would not cause a stir, and a correction is needed someday, taking into account the previous growth. But Nvidia is the foundation of a stock market bubble, and its decline may mean that there is no longer any faith in the sustainability of this bubble. Given that the company has to report on the results of the year in the middle of the month, all sorts of surprises are possible.

Of course, it is premature to draw any harsh conclusions (such as “a grandiose collapse awaits us on November 19”). But it is certainly necessary to take into account the current circumstances.

Macroeconomics. Investments in fixed assets in Mexico -10.4% per year. Not counting covid, this is the second worst indicator since 2009 (the 16-year anti-record was also quite recently, this summer):

We remind you that it was Mexico that became the main investment market for China, as assembly plants of Chinese enterprises were built here. Apparently, this process is over.

Industrial production in Germany is -1.0% per year, the 27th negative month in the last 28 ones:

Corporate bankruptcies in Germany are growing by 10-15% per year; overall, 2025 is likely to be the worst since 2009:

The PMI (expert index of the state of the industry; its value below 50 means stagnation and recession) of the Australian industry (49.7) is the weakest in 10 months:

The same US indicator (48.7) has been in the decline zone for 8 months in a row:

In Japan (48.2), both the PMI as a whole and the key component of new orders have a 20-month bottom; external demand has been in decline for 44 consecutive months:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-factory-activity-falls-fastest-pace-19-months-pmi-shows-2025-11-04/

French construction sector PMI (39.8) is close to the lowest in more than 10 years (excluding covid):

The same indicator for Britain has already updated the post-covid bottom and is the lowest since 2019:

The index of economic sentiment in the United States is at its lowest level in 1.5 years and in the zone of deep recession (43.9); moreover, among non-investors, the indicator is already depressed (38.0):

The incoming price component of the US non-manufacturing PMI has been at its highest in more than 3 years; before the last powerful surge (2021/22), it was at such levels only 15 years ago:

CPI (Consumer Price Index) Switzerland -0.3% per month, the 3rd negative in a row and the worst dynamics since the summer of 2019 (not counting covid):

Job advertisements in Australia have been declining monthly for 4 months in a row:

The unemployment rate in New Zealand has returned to its covid peak and is the highest in 10 years:

In October, American firms announced more than 153,000 layoffs, the worst October since 2003; moreover, any month in the last quarter of the year was better than it is now, in any year since 2008. In general, for the first 10 months of the year, the upcoming cuts are the highest since covid 2020, and hiring plans in January-October, on the contrary, are the weakest since 2011 (and -35% compared to last year):

It is clear that in such a situation, the Fed leadership begins to have serious frustrations, it is impossible to ignore such a picture of unemployment even against the background of rising inflation.

Car sales in the United States are at their lowest in 15 months; they are noticeably below the dockside levels:

Consumer sentiment in the United States, according to the University of Michigan, is only 0.3 points from the record low reached in the summer of 2022:

And the component of the current estimate has already broken through those lows and turned out to be the worst in all 75 years of data collection:

What can I say to that? “No money, but you gotta hold on!”

The Central Bank of Mexico cut the base percentage by 0.25% to 7.25%, lamenting the weak economic activity.

The Bank of England has not lowered the rate, but it is almost certain to do so at the next meeting: already 5 board members voted for maintaining the previous percentage, and 4 voted for its immediate reduction:

The Central Bank of Australia has left rates in place, waiting for only one reduction in 2026. The monetary policy of the Central Bank of Sweden remains unchanged.

The same is true in Brazil, but the base percentage is at its peak in almost 20 years:

The main conclusions. Apparently, the real sector, industry, has begun to sag all over the world. And even those segments that are directly related to simple consumption.

Thus, shares and sales of Wendy’s, one of the American analogues of McDonald’s, fell to the level of December 2007. In November 2008, these shares reached a low of $3.18 per share, and the next increase occurred only in early 2013.

Judging by this result, the incomes of the lower middle class segment decreased significantly, and the company’s revenues fell accordingly.

However, another scenario is possible, including for other companies: all the free money has flowed into financial markets related to “artificial intelligence.” The lack of investment inevitably causes depressive phenomena in the economy of enterprises.

Note that the shutdown in the United States continues, so it is very possible that many unpleasant data have been missed again. Its ending can give many new unpleasant surprises. However, there is already enough to start anti-crisis measures within the framework of your business.

By the way, political events can have a direct impact on the economy in such a situation. Well, imagine that some kind of war starts on Monday, in Venezuela or Palestine (let me remind you that Turkey has officially accused the Israeli leadership of organizing the genocide of the Palestinian population). However, despite such an alarming situation, we wish our readers to relax over the weekend, not to be nervous. Well, to work actively during the work week, with accounting